Currently the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 80 points, shortly after the opening bell. It seems the pressure is toward selling with most every sector down and the VIX (volatility index up over 1 point). zenruption has been very bearish in regards to the stock market and continues to maintain that outlook.
Is reality finally here? We are hesitant to say for sure considering our calls for reality to return to the markets have been premature in the past. It leaves one wondering as to if the stock market just only started its anti-psychotic drug routine and has a way to go before it truly kicks in. Last week finished even for the week, as opposed to prior weeks that had been part of an amazing run. Will this week finish even or down?
One of the big events this week will be the Wednesday Federal Reserve Interest Rate Announcement, with rates expected to remain unchanged, which could support current stock prices as easy money does. Some other big events include University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Friday), Personal Income and Spending (Friday), Pending Home Sales (Wednesday) and several regional Fed Manufacturing readings. Most indicators are expected to be slightly positive with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity and Consumer Confidence showing slight contractions. Thursday’s report on First Quarter GDP is expected to be quite negative though, only showing that the economy grew at a 0.6% growth rate to start the year.
The deluge of earnings calls will continue with some big players like AT&T and Proctor and Gamble reporting this week. The expectation will be for stocks to reflect the weak first quarter.
The big news will continue to be in oil. While prices are currently up today, some pressure is being felt in consistently high oil inventories. U.S. rig count is down to its lowest level since 2009. Increased output from Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue to weigh on prices though. What is truly interesting is in seeing the market disconnect from oil prices today as the markets drop and oil goes up. Could it be that reality means that not everything is connected to the price of oil?
China’s debt rose to a record 237% of GDP in Q1 of 2016. Such high debt levels have increased the chances of a major recession, according to economists. This should weigh very heavily on the U.S. markets this week.
As of the conclusion of this writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 123 points and continuing to drop. Reality might finally be coming back to markets that have previously disconnected from it altogether.
Lina Martinez is a zenruption contributor to our money and life sections. She really doesn’t want to see the markets drop, but we all know they have to. She has previously admitted to singing “Careless Whisper” at odd times, and we still find this funny.
Feature photo courtesy of Flickr, under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license